Apex Seasons

Apex Pack Calculator

Track your real pity progress, not guesses. Estimate counted packs, guarantee distance, and pre-pity odds.

Last verified: Season 28 — Feb 2026

🎰 Heirloom Pity Progress

199 / 500 packs39.8%

Free Packs Earned

199

Total Packs Counted

199

Packs to Guaranteed

301

Statistical Heirloom Probability

63.1%

Based on estimated ~0.5% drop rate per pack. Guaranteed at 500.

How Apex Packs & Heirlooms Work

Pity Timer: You are guaranteed Heirloom Shards (150) within 500 regular packs.

What counts: Regular Apex Packs, Battle Pass packs, and purchased packs count toward the pity timer.

What doesn't count: Collection Event Packs and Themed Event Packs do NOT count toward heirloom pity.

Legendary pity: A Legendary item is guaranteed every 30 packs without one.

Drop rates: Rare+ 100% · Epic+ 24.8% · Legendary 7.4% · Heirloom <1%

How This Tool Works

This tracker estimates your regular-pack total and maps it to heirloom pity progress. It combines level-based free packs with any battle pass and purchased packs you add.

Event packs are separated on purpose because they do not advance regular heirloom pity. That keeps shard expectations realistic instead of inflated.

You get both certainty and probability: distance to the 500-pack guarantee and a pre-pity estimate for the current pack count.

Formula & Assumptions

  • Total counted packs = free packs from level schedule + battle pass packs + purchased packs.
  • Guaranteed shards trigger at 500 regular packs.
  • Pre-pity probability uses cumulative geometric model with estimated per-pack heirloom rate.
  • Legendary pity and heirloom pity are treated as separate systems.

Example Scenario

  1. Enter account level 600, battle pass packs 20, purchased packs 35, event packs 8.
  2. Confirm that event packs are excluded from counted pity packs.
  3. Read both total packs to guaranteed and probability estimate to decide whether to keep opening now.

Common Mistakes

  • Counting event packs toward the 500-pack heirloom guarantee.
  • Ignoring account-level free packs when estimating total opened packs.
  • Treating probability output as a guarantee before pity cap.

Data Source & Update Policy

  • Pack schedules follow known level-tier reward structures and are stored in a dedicated data file for easy seasonal updates.
  • Heirloom pity guarantee uses official 500-pack rule for regular packs.
  • Drop-rate probability is displayed as estimate and should not be interpreted as official exact odds.

How To Validate Any Output

Treat this page as a decision aid, not a black box. Start by checking that your inputs reflect your real situation (current rank, level, inventory, or playtime). Then compare one result against a real in-game outcome or official patch-note value. If the output is directionally right and assumptions match your case, use it for planning. If your local conditions differ, adjust assumptions and run another scenario before acting on the number.

The goal is transparent utility. Every calculator here intentionally exposes assumptions so you can audit the logic quickly and avoid common mistakes from outdated guides. That approach helps this site stay useful even when the Apex meta changes, because updating a few clearly documented values is faster and safer than rewriting hidden logic.